305
FXUS64 KOHX 171030
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES MAY BRING A DAMAGING WIND RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE OUT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
IF YOU LOOK AT THE CURRENT REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM OHX, YOU'LL SEE
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GRAVITY WAVE COMING DOWN OUT OF KENTUCKY TOWARD
NASHVILLE. IT ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE BASE VELOCITY IMAGERY, AS WELL
AS THE VARIOUS DUAL-POL PRODUCTS IF YOU TOGGLE THROUGH THEM ALL.
AT ANY RATE, A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS JUST
NUDGED ITS WAY INTO LAND-BETWEEN-THE-LAKES, AND ALREADY WE'RE
SEEING SHOWERS POP UP OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WE'VE ONE
MORE DAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY BEFORE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
START TO BACK OFF. THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
TODAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, AND A SLIGHT RISK AREA THAT INCLUDES A
PORTION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE PRIMARY RISK IS GOING TO BE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CRAWLS ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND WE'LL
NOTICE A BIT OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE AS THE AIR TURNS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID. WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE HAS PASSED, BUT RESIDUAL EFFECTS LINGER.
TONIGHT REMAINS WARM AND MUGGY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT.
MONDAY FEATURES ANOTHER HOT DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
FLATTENS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 100-105 RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE N DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (HIGHEST
CHANCES E OF I-65). FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED DCAPE, SUPPORTING A RISK OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 3 TO 10 PM WINDOW. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL,
SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT ANY STRONGER
CELLS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OVERNIGHT MONDAY LOWS FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE FIRST SOLID COOLDOWN OF THE PERIOD. NW FLOW AND
DRIER AIR WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN SPOTS,
BUT THE EXTREME VALUES OF THE PAST WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED.
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
AGREEMENT ON A BROADER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTER U.S. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY DISMANTLE THE RESIDUAL RIDGE INFLUENCE, OPEN THE
DOOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO
SUNDAY), AND PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
BUT CHANGES ARE COMING ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CREEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN AIR MASS CHANGE
TO THE MID STATE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND THEN THE
NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FROPA. THERE ARE ALSO CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AS A PRECAUTION, WE'VE ALSO INCLUDED PROB30
REMARKS AT KBNA AND KMQY FOR TS/CBS, BUT AM NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THAT FAR WESTWARD. MAINLY,
THE KCSV AND KSRB TERMINALS STAND TO BE IMPACTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 96 71 91 67 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 92 68 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 91 68 85 63 / 60 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 98 71 93 67 / 20 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 92 69 86 65 / 60 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 90 68 84 64 / 60 20 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 96 70 90 66 / 30 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 98 71 91 67 / 30 10 0 0
WAVERLY 93 69 91 68 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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