076
FXUS64 KOHX 172328
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- MEDIUM STORM CHANCES WILL BRING A LOW-END DAMAGING WIND RISK
FROM 3 TO 8 PM TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL COME TOMORROW BEFORE
ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON WEDNESDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY, HANG ON TIGHT.
RELIEF IS COMING. THE FIRST (THOUGH SHORT) STINT OF RELIEF WILL COME
TOMORROW AFTER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS/RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE FRONT ITSELF IS STILL BACK IN KY. AS IT
PUSHES CLOSER TO THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WE ARE STILL EXPECTED
A SPIKE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MOST SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WITH A PEAK TIME FRAME OF 3 TO 8 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL WIND RISK WITH DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE MAIN
MITIGATING INGREDIENT IS A LACK OF VERTICAL SHEAR. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT A LOW CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH HERE THIS EVENING, I THINK WE'LL SEE ONE
DAY OF TEMP/HUMIDITY RELIEF TOMORROW. DEW POINTS FALL BACK INTO THE
60S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MORE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
ONE MORE (SHORT-LIVED) SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDTY IS EXPECTED TO REAR
ITS HEAD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SWINGS BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL, BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW! BUT -- THE DOOR MAY BE OPEN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, TOO.
MOST ARE SUGGESTING A WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME NOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON
THURSDAY ARE WORTH WATCHING AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HEALTHY AND
THERE COULD BE *A LITTLE* MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THIS STORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALL REVOLVES
AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US AND ONCE WE GET PAST THESE MID-WEEK STORMS,
MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH SMALL TO NO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
STORMS ARE EXITING THE PLATEAU LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SRB/CSV ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL AND CLEARING
SKIES, BUT CLEARS OUT AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 89 67 92 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 67 84 62 89 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 70 91 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 85 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 68 84 63 88 / 20 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 70 89 66 94 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 91 66 95 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 68 90 68 93 / 0 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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