404
FXUS64 KOHX 180301
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1001 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- BRIEF BUT WELCOME RELIEF TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. ONE FINAL
PUSH OF HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAINS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
- A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW WILL SETTLE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN
RECENT DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 WITH CLEAR SKIES.
BY WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY, PUSHING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT AS EXTREME, IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
WARM. CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE E U.S.
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HIGHS HELD IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. ANY STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL, THROUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SETTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY, FAVORING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN THE OVERALL COOLING AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PROLONGED HEAT EPISODE OF MID-AUGUST IS EFFECTIVELY ENDING.
ENJOY THE MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY, THEN PREPARE FOR A
WETTER STRETCH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
STORMS ARE EXITING THE PLATEAU LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SRB/CSV ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL AND CLEARING
SKIES, BUT CLEARS OUT AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 89 67 92 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 67 84 62 89 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 70 91 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 85 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 68 84 63 88 / 10 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 70 89 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 91 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 68 90 68 93 / 0 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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