359
FXUS64 KOHX 181014
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- WE'LL ENJOY BRIEF BUT WELCOME RELIEF TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. ONE
FINAL PUSH OF HEAT RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WE'LL REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR A WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A WONDERFULLY COOL MORNING -- RELATIVELY
SPEAKING, ANYWAY -- AS WE FIND OURSELVES IN A STABLE, POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AND WE'LL ENJOY A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TODAY. THERE
IS SOME RADIATION FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFFECTING MAINLY THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION AND RECEIVES SOME HELP FROM A PASSING UPPER
TROUGH. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN ITS NEW
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT
WOULD BE OVERNIGHT AND SO THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS STILL VERY
LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW WILL SETTLE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN
RECENT DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 WITH CLEAR SKIES.
BY WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY, PUSHING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT AS EXTREME, IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
WARM. CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE E U.S.
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HIGHS HELD IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. ANY STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL, THROUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SETTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWER HUMIDITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY, FAVORING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN THE OVERALL COOLING AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PROLONGED HEAT EPISODE OF MID-AUGUST IS EFFECTIVELY ENDING.
ENJOY THE MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY, THEN PREPARE FOR A
WETTER STRETCH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S FROPA, HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST, SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT RADIATION FOG
AND LOW STRATUS AT KCSV AND KSRB DURING THE EARLY MORNING, BUT
THIS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 65 95 73 / 0 0 0 50
CLARKSVILLE 89 66 93 72 / 0 0 10 60
CROSSVILLE 83 62 89 68 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBIA 91 67 96 73 / 0 0 0 50
COOKEVILLE 84 64 90 70 / 0 0 0 40
JAMESTOWN 83 63 88 68 / 0 0 0 40
LAWRENCEBURG 89 66 94 72 / 0 0 0 40
MURFREESBORO 90 67 95 72 / 0 0 0 40
WAVERLY 89 67 95 72 / 0 0 0 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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