077
FXUS64 KOHX 190344
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 90S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A DECAYING MCS MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MCS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE FALLING APART, WHEREAS OTHERS SHOW IT
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TN/KY STATE LINE. IF IT DOES MAKE IT INTO TN,
IT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO OUR NW COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MAKE THINGS MOIST IN THE AREA, PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A
700 MB JET WILL PICK UP AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL, LEADING TO
DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BECAUSE
OF THIS JET, OUR MAIN HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO A THREAT. STORM MODE WITH THIS THREAT LOOKS TO BE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS, BUT SOME SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT (OUR TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW).
THURSDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON, LEAVING US
WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER CHANCES ON
FRIDAY, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED, THANKFULLY, AND THE
PATTERN TURNS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK, WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING IN ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT FOG/MIST AT CSV AND SRB. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 93 73 89 / 0 10 70 60
CLARKSVILLE 66 92 71 87 / 0 30 90 60
CROSSVILLE 62 89 68 85 / 0 0 40 80
COLUMBIA 67 95 73 91 / 0 10 50 50
COOKEVILLE 64 89 70 85 / 0 0 70 80
JAMESTOWN 63 88 68 84 / 0 0 70 90
LAWRENCEBURG 66 94 72 90 / 0 0 40 50
MURFREESBORO 67 95 72 90 / 0 0 70 60
WAVERLY 67 93 72 88 / 0 20 70 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....13
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