908
FXUS64 KOHX 190518
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1218 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 90S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A DECAYING MCS MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MCS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE FALLING APART, WHEREAS OTHERS SHOW IT
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TN/KY STATE LINE. IF IT DOES MAKE IT INTO TN,
IT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO OUR NW COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MAKE THINGS MOIST IN THE AREA, PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A
700 MB JET WILL PICK UP AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL, LEADING TO
DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BECAUSE
OF THIS JET, OUR MAIN HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO A THREAT. STORM MODE WITH THIS THREAT LOOKS TO BE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS, BUT SOME SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT (OUR TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW).
THURSDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON, LEAVING US
WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER CHANCES ON
FRIDAY, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED, THANKFULLY, AND THE
PATTERN TURNS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK, WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING IN ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FG AT CSV AND SRB.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 0Z, TSRA BEGIN TO ENTER
INTO THE FORECAST, WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 73 89 68 / 10 70 60 60
CLARKSVILLE 92 71 87 70 / 30 90 60 20
CROSSVILLE 89 68 85 66 / 0 40 80 60
COLUMBIA 95 73 91 71 / 10 50 50 60
COOKEVILLE 89 70 85 68 / 0 70 80 60
JAMESTOWN 88 68 84 66 / 0 70 90 70
LAWRENCEBURG 94 72 90 70 / 0 40 50 60
MURFREESBORO 95 72 90 70 / 0 70 60 60
WAVERLY 93 72 88 70 / 20 70 50 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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