342
FXUS64 KOHX 191030
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH THE LOW 100S IN SOME AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-65.
- STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND IMPACT MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS IN AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, WITH AREAS AROUND
CLARKSVILLE, WAVERLY AND DOVER POTENTIALLY BEING THE MOST
IMPACTED, AS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) EXTENDS INTO THIS
REGION. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
RISKS, BUT THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THIS MORNING HAS TURNED OUT TO BE PLEASANTLY COOL, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MOST SPOTS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S BY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES
ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW 100S, MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65,
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY THIS EVENING,
AND THAT WILL HELP PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER ON. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND THE HRRR SHOWS NUMEROUS STORMS ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY THE LATE EVENING AND PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA ALL THE WAY
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WITH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE ALSO IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE HRRR FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
BNA AT 06Z SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF ALMOST 2", A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND A 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 6.1 C/KM.
HOWEVER, RADIATION COOLING BY THEN WILL HAVE CREATED A STABLE
SURFACE-BASED LAYER, SO STORMS WILL NEED SOME SORT OF LIFTING
MECHANISM TO HELP "GET OVER THE HUMP," AND THAT'S WHY THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY HELP FUEL THESE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A DECAYING MCS MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MCS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE FALLING APART, WHEREAS OTHERS SHOW IT
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TN/KY STATE LINE. IF IT DOES MAKE IT INTO TN,
IT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO OUR NW COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MAKE THINGS MOIST IN THE AREA, PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A
700 MB JET WILL PICK UP AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL, LEADING TO
DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BECAUSE
OF THIS JET, OUR MAIN HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO A THREAT. STORM MODE WITH THIS THREAT LOOKS TO BE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS, BUT SOME SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT (OUR TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW).
THURSDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON, LEAVING US
WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER CHANCES ON
FRIDAY, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED, THANKFULLY, AND THE
PATTERN TURNS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK, WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING IN ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FG AT CSV AND SRB.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 0Z, TSRA BEGIN TO ENTER
INTO THE FORECAST, WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 73 89 68 / 10 70 60 60
CLARKSVILLE 92 71 87 70 / 30 90 60 20
CROSSVILLE 89 68 85 66 / 0 40 80 60
COLUMBIA 95 73 91 71 / 10 50 50 60
COOKEVILLE 89 70 85 68 / 0 70 80 60
JAMESTOWN 88 68 84 66 / 0 70 90 70
LAWRENCEBURG 94 72 90 70 / 0 40 50 60
MURFREESBORO 95 72 90 70 / 0 70 60 60
WAVERLY 93 72 88 70 / 20 70 50 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page