236
FXUS64 KOHX 191635
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL.
- WARM AND MORE HUMID STARTING TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE
LOW 100S IN SOME AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A SLOWLY DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS IS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING SOME CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF YOU'VE BEEN OUTSIDE
THIS MORNING, YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED IT IS A LITTLE MORE HUMID.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 DEGREES.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS TONIGHT AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THAT LINE WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION IN
PLACE. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT,
BUT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CURVATURE, THERE IS A
VERY LOW THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING FOR THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE AFTER 8 PM THROUGH 2 AM. AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROGRESS, THE STORMS WILL LOSE SOME OF THEIR STEAM BUT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE OVERNIGHT WAVE
WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY BUT A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2" WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS MAY SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. SOME
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRIDAY'S WAVE WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO CREEP UP TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
WAITING ON MORNING FOG AT KCSV TO DISSIPATE, OTHERWISE, WE'LL BE
VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. BY EVENING, A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND
THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME FOCUSING FOR CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WE'VE STAGGERED PROB30 GROUPS ACCORDING TO
EXPECTED STORM MOVEMENT AND TIMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 71 90 69 / 40 90 60 50
CLARKSVILLE 92 71 88 70 / 60 90 40 30
CROSSVILLE 89 68 85 66 / 10 60 50 50
COLUMBIA 95 73 92 71 / 10 70 50 50
COOKEVILLE 89 69 86 68 / 10 70 40 50
JAMESTOWN 88 67 84 66 / 0 70 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 94 72 91 70 / 10 50 50 50
MURFREESBORO 95 72 92 70 / 20 70 50 60
WAVERLY 93 72 89 70 / 50 80 50 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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