352
FXUS64 KOHX 191739
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1239 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL.
- WARM AND MORE HUMID STARTING TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE
LOW 100S IN SOME AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A SLOWLY DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS IS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING SOME CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF YOU'VE BEEN OUTSIDE
THIS MORNING, YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED IT IS A LITTLE MORE HUMID.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 DEGREES.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS TONIGHT AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THAT LINE WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION IN
PLACE. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT,
BUT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CURVATURE, THERE IS A
VERY LOW THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING FOR THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE AFTER 8 PM THROUGH 2 AM. AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROGRESS, THE STORMS WILL LOSE SOME OF THEIR STEAM BUT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE OVERNIGHT WAVE
WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY BUT A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2" WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS MAY SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. SOME
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRIDAY'S WAVE WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO CREEP UP TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR TAFS THIS CYCLE, FROM A PREVAILING WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. WILD
CARD WILL BE ANY CONVECTION. MAINLY LOOKING AT A CLUSTER OF
SHRA/TS NEAR AND WEST OF CKV AT THIS TIME, SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR
CKV. ALSO ADDED A PROB30 FOR BNA AND MQY MID AFTERNOON FOR SHRA
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS WASN'T
MODELED WELL THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT PROB30S IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS BUT ADJUSTED
TIMING BASED OF LATEST GUIDANCE. CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS AND BRIEF IMPACTS TO VIS/CIG DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. SHRA COULD
PERSIST A FEW HOURS AFTER MAIN LINE OF STORMS WITH CLEARING
THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 90 69 90 / 90 60 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 71 88 70 89 / 90 40 30 10
CROSSVILLE 68 85 66 84 / 60 50 50 60
COLUMBIA 73 92 71 91 / 70 50 50 20
COOKEVILLE 69 86 68 85 / 70 40 50 50
JAMESTOWN 67 84 66 84 / 70 50 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 72 91 70 89 / 50 50 50 30
MURFREESBORO 72 92 70 91 / 70 50 60 30
WAVERLY 72 89 70 90 / 80 50 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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