682
FXUS64 KOHX 200345
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A COMPLETE MESS HANDLING UPSTREAM
STORMS OVER MO AND THIS HAS COMPLICATED OUR STORM FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS BRING STORMS IN LATER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST, PERHAPS AS LATE AS 2 OR 3 AM CDT IN OUR NORTHWEST. HOW
FAR SOUTH STORMS DEVELOP IS ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT EVEN IF THE
MAIN MCS TRACKS UP IN KY, IT SHOULD STILL PUSH SOME OUTFLOW STORMS
DOWN INTO THE MID STATE. OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A SEVERE RISK CONTINUES WITH THE STORMS, MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT, BUT STORMS SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS HERE
COMPARED TO UPSTREAM AREAS. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN,
MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST.
POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING AS A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES THE AREA. MUCH OF MIDDAY WILL BE
RAIN-FREE. THEN, AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS, ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS TIME THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
PLATEAU COUNTIES. LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE CONCERN
IN THE AFTERNOON AS CAPES CLIMB ABOVE 2000 WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER
1K.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY SOUTH
AND PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL START TO CREEP UP TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
TAFS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING AT
THIS HOUR ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, A LINE OF SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, LIKELY
APPROACHING KCKV AROUND 05Z TO 06Z AND EXITING THROUGH KCSV BY 12Z.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS LINE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND
REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN LINE, BUT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. FOR NOW, ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR BNA'S 30-HOUR
TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 91 69 90 / 70 40 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 70 89 / 90 50 10 0
CROSSVILLE 68 86 66 84 / 40 50 30 30
COLUMBIA 73 93 70 91 / 40 40 30 0
COOKEVILLE 69 86 68 85 / 60 60 30 20
JAMESTOWN 67 85 67 84 / 60 60 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 72 92 69 89 / 30 40 30 10
MURFREESBORO 72 93 70 91 / 50 40 40 10
WAVERLY 72 90 70 89 / 60 30 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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