017
FXUS64 KOHX 201624
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1124 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
- THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- DRIER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, THEN NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE MORNING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AT
THIS TIME. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND WE SHOULD GET
A GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOMEWHAT HUMID GIVEN ALL THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
THAT SAID, HREF MEMBERS ALL POINT TOWARD ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
STORMS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. IT'S HERE WHERE A BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI). A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
PERHAPS HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOUTH OF I-40. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM PROGRESSION TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW OUTFLOWS EVOLVE, THERE COULD BE
SOME ACTIVITY THAT DRIFTS NORTH AND/OR PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAY KEEP A LITTLE ACTIVITY
GOING AS WELL, BUT SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH BY ~9 PM WITH
LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SIT MORE INTO THE TROUGH AXIS TOMORROW, SO
COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK VERY GOOD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. CURRENTLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, MORE SO FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. WE HAVE
SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR FOR PASSING
SHORTWAVES MID NEXT WEEK, SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 20-40% AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING AND TS IS ONGOING AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW MORE INTENSE STORM CORES IN THE REGION OF THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL, SO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~14Z ALONG WITH
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. SRB AND CSV ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM, SO ONLY -RA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY ~15Z AT ALL SITES AND A VFR DAY IS
FORECAST WITH LIGHT W TO SW WINDS. MAINTAINING PROB30S FOR BNA,
MQY, SRB, AND CSV FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM POTENTIAL.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AT ALL SITES, THEN A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK
TOMORROW. LIKELY THIS REMAINS MORE PATCHY NEAR BNA AND MQY. I WENT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH VIS AT SRB AND CSV AND THERE'S BETTER
CHANCES FOR IFR VIS/CIG AT THESE AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 69 90 63 / 50 30 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 89 69 88 64 / 30 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 86 66 84 63 / 50 60 20 10
COLUMBIA 93 71 91 67 / 40 40 0 0
COOKEVILLE 86 68 85 65 / 60 40 20 10
JAMESTOWN 85 67 84 64 / 80 40 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 92 70 89 66 / 50 50 10 0
MURFREESBORO 93 71 91 67 / 50 50 10 0
WAVERLY 90 70 89 66 / 40 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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