631
FXUS64 KOHX 202336
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
- THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING SOUTH OF I-40 AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- DRIER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, THEN NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE MORNING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AT
THIS TIME. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND WE SHOULD GET
A GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOMEWHAT HUMID GIVEN ALL THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
THAT SAID, HREF MEMBERS ALL POINT TOWARD ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
STORMS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. IT'S HERE WHERE A BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI). A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
PERHAPS HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE GIVEN BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOUTH OF I-40. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM PROGRESSION TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW OUTFLOWS EVOLVE, THERE COULD BE
SOME ACTIVITY THAT DRIFTS NORTH AND/OR PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH MAY KEEP A LITTLE ACTIVITY
GOING AS WELL, BUT SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH BY ~9 PM WITH
LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SIT MORE INTO THE TROUGH AXIS TOMORROW, SO
COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK VERY GOOD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. CURRENTLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, MORE SO FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. WE HAVE
SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR FOR PASSING
SHORTWAVES MID NEXT WEEK, SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 20-40% AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING MIDDLE TN WILL BRING VARIABLE CONDITIONS
TO AREA TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
FORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF BNA, BUT BRIEF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT CSV AND
SRB. OTHERWISE, ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS FROM LATE
NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS. BNA, CKV, AND MQY WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH
BRIEF IFR AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT CSV AND SRB WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. ALL SITES WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH 5-8
KT BY 17Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 90 63 91 / 30 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 69 88 64 90 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 66 84 63 84 / 60 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 71 91 67 93 / 40 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 85 65 86 / 40 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 67 84 64 85 / 40 20 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 70 89 66 91 / 50 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 71 91 67 92 / 50 10 0 0
WAVERLY 70 89 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....13
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