848
FXUS64 KOHX 211659
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1159 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-65 TODAY AND TOMORROW, BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
- OVERALL DRIER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH FOG POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS NOW MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST.
DRIER TROPOSPHERIC AIR HAS NOW WORKED INTO THE REGION WITH PWS IN
THE 1.3" RANGE, THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ARE
LINGERING MAKING FOR HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT
LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE
WE'LL ENJOY A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND TODAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT, SO FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND COOLER RURAL AREAS.
ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION LOOKS TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER/ISOLATED
STORM CHANCES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
HELP BRING TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THIS WILL ALSO OPEN
THE DOOR FOR AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWS/INSTABILITY TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIAL
RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, BUT EVERYONE MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIFR STRATUS THAT REACHES CKV WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING. BIGGEST CAT CHANGES
WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIFR TO VLIFR VIS AT CSV AND
POSSIBLY SRB. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 65 92 64 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 88 65 90 63 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 84 63 84 60 / 40 0 20 0
COLUMBIA 91 67 93 66 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 84 66 87 62 / 20 0 20 10
JAMESTOWN 83 65 85 62 / 40 0 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 89 66 91 64 / 10 0 0 20
MURFREESBORO 90 68 93 65 / 10 0 0 10
WAVERLY 89 67 91 65 / 0 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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