065
FXUS64 KOHX 212330
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY, BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
- OVERALL DRIER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, AND WHILE A COUPLE
STORMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLATEAU, THOSE HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO EAST TN. THE REST OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT SHOULD BE
QUIET WITH THE ONLY CONCERN BEING PATCHY FOG. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN FOG IS ACROSS THE PLATEAU, AND ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BURN AWAY AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS A LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENJOYING A NICE DRY
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS NOW MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST.
DRIER TROPOSPHERIC AIR HAS NOW WORKED INTO THE REGION WITH PWS IN
THE 1.3" RANGE, THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ARE
LINGERING MAKING FOR HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. OVERALL WE EXPECT
LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE
WE'LL ENJOY A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND TODAY WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT, SO FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND COOLER RURAL AREAS.
ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION LOOKS TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER/ISOLATED
STORM CHANCES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
HELP BRING TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THIS WILL ALSO OPEN
THE DOOR FOR AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWS/INSTABILITY TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIAL
RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION NORTH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
ENCOURAGE FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME DENSE, MOSTLY IMPACTING CSV AND
SRB. PROBABILITIES FOR VIS LESS THAN VFR THRESHOLDS AT BNA, MQY
AND CKV ARE LOW, LESS THAN 20%. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
AND WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL PICK UP WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 65 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 63 85 59 81 / 0 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 67 93 66 90 / 0 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 66 87 62 83 / 0 30 0 0
JAMESTOWN 65 85 61 82 / 0 30 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 66 91 64 88 / 0 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 68 93 65 89 / 0 10 0 0
WAVERLY 67 92 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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