556
FXUS64 KOHX 041600
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF MIDDLE TN THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK LESSENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND STICKY DAY IS UPON US. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY AT 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES. ASIDE
FROM THE HEAT, WE'LL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL BACK FROM THE AREA.
GIVEN HIGH AIR TEMPERATURES, SOUNDING PROFILES WILL FEATURE AN
INVERTED-V, FAVORING STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP
WITH DCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000S. WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ON SATURDAY, WE'LL SEE
SOME PROGRESSION WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS RIDGING PULLS WEST
AND FLOW ORIENTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO BE PULLED DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST, RIDING
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS SUCH, THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY RAMPS UP
WITH PEAK HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, BUT
SINCE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SO HIGH, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH PUSH
TO GET A STORM GOING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT KEEP AN
EYE OUT NO MATTER WHERE YOU ARE IN THE MID-STATE AS STORMS COULD
SPROUT UP QUICKLY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE END TIME FOR SATURDAY'S ACTIVITY.
SOME CAMS ARE HINTING AT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE
EVENING WHERE OTHERS HAVE THINGS WINDING DOWN AROUND 7PM.
MAINTAINED LOW POP DURING THE 6PM-12AM TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS UNCERTAINTY. ON SUNDAY, THOUGH STILL HOT, THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN TO THE AREA, BRINGING HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS. FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, IT'S
GONNA BE...YOU GUESSED IT. HOT. WE WILL REMAIN FIXED BETWEEN
RIDGING TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS. BY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOLIDLY BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
SHUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS. THOUGH IT'S NOT
CURRENTLY LOOKING HEAT ADVISORY HOT (FEEL-LIKE OF 105), IT'S
STILL GOING TO BE UNCOMFORTABLE OUT AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAKE A
RUN FOR 100 DEGREES AGAIN. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE ANY
OUTDOOR INTERESTS NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL RE-INTRODUCE LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR TAF CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY ABOVE US, NOT EXPECTING A PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY VRB AND UNDER 5 KNOTS.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA OR TSRA FRIDAY AROUND 18Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH SO DID NOT INCLUDE THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 98 76 98 74 / 20 0 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 98 75 98 73 / 20 10 20 10
CROSSVILLE 93 71 91 68 / 10 0 20 20
COLUMBIA 99 74 100 73 / 10 0 20 10
COOKEVILLE 95 73 95 71 / 10 10 20 20
JAMESTOWN 93 73 91 70 / 10 0 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 97 73 97 72 / 20 0 20 10
MURFREESBORO 100 74 100 73 / 20 0 20 10
WAVERLY 98 75 99 74 / 10 10 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TENS>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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