506
FXUS64 KOHX 050341
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1041 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
- HEAT RISK LESSENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TODAY'S ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED, AND A QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT IS
AHEAD. THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
STILL, HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DIP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH THE
HIGH OVER THE PLAINS, BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE MID-90S FOR
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER, AND WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF THESE TEMPERATURES, HEAT RISK WILL STILL BE MAJOR
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN. AS SUCH, HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA INTO SUNDAY.
AS FAR AS RAIN GOES, AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WEST, THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH LESSENS THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE INVERTED-VS
WITH PLENTY OF DCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A MARGINAL RISK IS STILL IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE FORCING IS A
BIT BETTER IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ON MONDAY, MIDDLE TN IS BETWEEN THE HIGH STILL TO THE WEST AND
TROUGHING TO THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PLATEAU. BUT BY TUESDAY, THE
HIGH WORKS ITS WAY BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THESE
TEMPERATURES DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE AS HOT AS THIS CURRENT HEAT
WAVE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES STAYING BELOW THAT 105 DEGREE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT THESE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR SEPTEMBER
WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD, IT DOES BRING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO
LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT THURSDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN SHIFT
AND THE RETURN OF SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
STORM ACTIVITY IS WANING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED DURING THE PERIOD OF WIDEST STORM
COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
A TERMINAL MAY BE IMPACTED BY A STORM OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
COULD DETERMINE WIND DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 98 74 93 / 0 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 75 98 72 92 / 0 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 71 91 68 87 / 10 20 20 20
COLUMBIA 74 99 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 73 94 70 89 / 0 20 20 0
JAMESTOWN 73 91 69 86 / 0 20 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 97 71 94 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 74 100 72 95 / 0 10 10 0
WAVERLY 75 98 74 93 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-059-
062>066-077>080.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ056>058-060-061-075-
093>095.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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