871
FXUS64 KOHX 051717
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
- LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- HEAT RISK LESSENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THINGS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO HEAT UP ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING. EVEN BEFORE NOON, SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES ARE READING
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES AND CLIMBING. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A
SMALLER SEGMENT TAKE OVER THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
DUE TO LINGERING HEAT IMPACTS BUT MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
CRITERIA (105 HI) TOMORROW.
THIS WARM AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE MID STATE REGION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A
DECAYING MCS IS NOTED OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE SMOKIES AS OF
11AM, BUT MOST CAMS SUGGEST ANOTHER PUSH OF STORMS LATER TODAY.
THIS MORNING'S KOHX SOUNDING REVEALED UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG OF DCAPE
AT 7AM, WHICH IS PLENTY FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS ALREADY FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THIS TO CREEP
UP TO 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WATCH FOR POTENT
OUTFLOWS (STRONG WIND GUSTS) IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER MIDDLE TN IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THIS SEVERE THREAT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE CAMS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FIRST MCS IS ALREADY PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE AREA AND IS NOT BEING
RESOLVED WELL. IF THIS CONVECTION ADOPTS MORE OF A SUMMERTIME
CHARACTERISTIC AND IS MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
PARAMETER SPACE IS MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN
ABOUT 1PM AND 6PM. IF NOTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE SECOND
PUSH WITH THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 8PM), THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE ENOUGH STEAM TO PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS HEAT IS NOT LEAVING THE FORECAST ANY TIME
SOON. LREF SUGGESTS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO SET RIGHT BACK UP OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK, PRETTY MUCH MAXING OUT THE 500
MB HEIGHT CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. WHILE THIS AIRMASS
ISN'T GOING TO BE NEARLY AS HUMID, WE STILL HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS ALMOST 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POPS REMAIN LOW (<15%) UNTIL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD (READ: STILL HOT) FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. NO
BIG TEMPERATURE DIP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND, JUST LESS
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
OVERALL WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF CSV WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z.
IFR/LIFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 93 67 92 / 20 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 92 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 67 86 62 84 / 30 10 10 50
COLUMBIA 72 96 67 93 / 10 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 70 88 65 87 / 40 0 10 40
JAMESTOWN 68 85 63 85 / 40 10 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 71 94 66 91 / 10 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 72 95 67 93 / 20 0 0 10
WAVERLY 73 93 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
059-062>066-077>080.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ056>058-060-061-075-
093>095.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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