672
FXUS64 KOHX 052306
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
606 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- MAJOR HEAT RISK AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN WITH A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
- LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- HEAT RISK LESSENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF MIDDLE TN. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OF 2000+ J/KG AND
DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG, THE ENVIRONMENT IS CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
OF STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE, WE FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 8PM FOR MOST. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE. LOOK FOR A CALMER DAY
SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THINGS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO HEAT UP ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING. EVEN BEFORE NOON, SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES ARE READING
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES AND CLIMBING. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A
SMALLER SEGMENT TAKE OVER THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
DUE TO LINGERING HEAT IMPACTS BUT MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW
CRITERIA (105 HI) TOMORROW.
THIS WARM AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE MID STATE REGION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A
DECAYING MCS IS NOTED OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE SMOKIES AS OF
11AM, BUT MOST CAMS SUGGEST ANOTHER PUSH OF STORMS LATER TODAY.
THIS MORNING'S KOHX SOUNDING REVEALED UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG OF DCAPE
AT 7AM, WHICH IS PLENTY FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS ALREADY FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THIS TO CREEP
UP TO 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WATCH FOR POTENT
OUTFLOWS (STRONG WIND GUSTS) IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER MIDDLE TN IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THIS SEVERE THREAT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE CAMS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FIRST MCS IS ALREADY PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE AREA AND IS NOT BEING
RESOLVED WELL. IF THIS CONVECTION ADOPTS MORE OF A SUMMERTIME
CHARACTERISTIC AND IS MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
PARAMETER SPACE IS MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN
ABOUT 1PM AND 6PM. IF NOTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE SECOND
PUSH WITH THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT (AFTER 8PM), THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE ENOUGH STEAM TO PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS HEAT IS NOT LEAVING THE FORECAST ANY TIME
SOON. LREF SUGGESTS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO SET RIGHT BACK UP OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK, PRETTY MUCH MAXING OUT THE 500
MB HEIGHT CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. WHILE THIS AIRMASS
ISN'T GOING TO BE NEARLY AS HUMID, WE STILL HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS ALMOST 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POPS REMAIN LOW (<15%) UNTIL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD (READ: STILL HOT) FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. NO
BIG TEMPERATURE DIP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND, JUST LESS
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30
GROUPS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z TO 03Z FOR BNA, MQY, CSV, AND SRB. ANY
DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG WILL DIMINISH AROUND 13Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE THEREAFTER ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 93 68 92 / 20 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 92 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 67 87 63 84 / 20 10 0 50
COLUMBIA 72 97 67 93 / 20 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 70 89 65 87 / 30 0 0 40
JAMESTOWN 68 86 63 85 / 30 10 0 40
LAWRENCEBURG 71 95 67 91 / 20 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 72 95 68 93 / 20 0 0 10
WAVERLY 73 94 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
059-062>066-077>080.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ056>058-060-061-075-
093>095.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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