051
FXUS64 KOHX 061709
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1209 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT
- SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES TOMORROW BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
- LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN. A SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. AS THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH
LATER TODAY, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF I-65. WHILE SHEAR IS MEAGER, INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AND THE KOHX 12Z SOUNDING RECORDED OVER 1,000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THEREFORE, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS LOW, THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
A MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR LABOR DAY WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S. THERE'S A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-40%) OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EAST OF I-65 TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE UPPER-80S TO MID-
90S BY WEDNESDAY BUT POPS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (< 10%) AS AN UPPER-
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATER THIS WEEK AND CAUSE A SURFACE
FRONT TO TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE OUR
HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEK (45-60%) AND BRING A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY (MID-80S TO LOW-90S). DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE TAF PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CLEARING DURING THE
EVENING WITH LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 12
KNOTS THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 92 70 92 / 0 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 63 85 63 85 / 0 30 10 0
COLUMBIA 68 93 69 94 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 65 87 67 88 / 0 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 64 86 65 86 / 0 20 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 67 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 68 94 69 94 / 0 10 10 0
WAVERLY 67 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ056>058-060-061-
075-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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