532
FXUS64 KOHX 071725
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1225 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- DRY TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
IT'S BEEN A BEAUTIFUL START TO LABOR DAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST NOW
WARMING UP TO 80 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER EAST TENNESSEE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST TODAY, PROVIDING A FOCUS POINT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND HIGH PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
NORTH AND INSTABILITY WANES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER, NEAR 70S DEGREES. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY, SHUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UP
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL COME WEDNESDAY WHEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE BULLSEYE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER MIDDLE TN. HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID 90S WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING JUST OVER
100 DEGREES FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF POINTS NASHVILLE AND WEST. THERE
WILL BE A DIP IN THE ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND STORMS ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CHANCES RANGING
BETWEEN 50-70%. SOUNDINGS AREN'T FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR 30 KTS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE POOR, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
SOME FORCING, SO A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF
THE QUESTION, BUT THE THREAT OVERALL APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW, KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30% IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. KCSV WILL SEE CIGS RIGHT AROUND MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<30%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
UNDER 7 KNOTS THROUGH 13Z, THEN INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 16
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 92 71 94 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 70 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 63 85 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 70 93 70 95 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 67 87 67 89 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 65 86 65 87 / 20 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 91 69 93 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 94 70 96 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 71 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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