002
FXUS64 KOHX 081655
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN
WEDNESDAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR HEAT INDICIES OF 105 DEGREES.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SOLIDLY RETURNED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WE'LL SEE
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH A CHUNK OF THE DAY
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON,
SO BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND SHADED IF OUTDOORS. QUIET AND WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FOG.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BULLSEYE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY,
MAKING IT THE HOTTEST DAY WE'LL EXPERIENCE THIS WEEK. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
10AM TO 7PM. SIMILAR TO TODAY, BE SURE TO TAKE YOUR PRECAUTIONS IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BEFORE THIS
FRONT HOWEVER, THURSDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT
STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGIT RANGE. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIP INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL JUMP UP TO THE 60-
80% RANGE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BUMP IN BULK SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 30 KTS. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM, BUT AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO HELP GET SOME STORMS GOING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCES AREAWIDE BETWEEN 30-50%. MOVING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIP INTO THE AREA, KEEPING
20-40% RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO START BUILDING EAST BACK INTO THE AREA, SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, VERY ISOLATED.
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND 14Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SE AROUND
5-10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. GUSTS
WILL LESSEN AFTER 0Z ON THE 9TH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 73 94 73 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 93 73 95 74 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 93 70 95 70 / 30 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 87 68 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 85 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 90 69 92 69 / 30 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 93 70 95 70 / 20 0 0 0
WAVERLY 92 73 94 73 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>027.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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