708
FXUS64 KOHX 091640
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN UNTIL
8 PM FOR HEAT INDICIES NEAR 105 DEGREES.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK.
- A WETTER PATTERN KICKS OFF THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 597 H5 RIDGE CONTINUED TO BRING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HEAT TO MIDDLE TN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH WERE PUMPING IN
HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO TOP 100 FOR MANY AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SOUTH WINDS WERE
BRINGING SLIGHT SWEAT RELIEF WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN A LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HOT AND HUMID, BUT WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY UNDER
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 BY LATE DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE WEAK, DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIP INTO
MIDDLE TN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS FRONTAL ZONE,
ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES, WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL STAY HOT AND
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100. THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND STORM CHANCES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS THANKS TO WEAK FORCING, POOR LAPSE
RATES, AND GENERALLY WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WINDS.
UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS SHOW THE BUILDUP OF ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN AND WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT HEAT HEADLINES FOR MANY AREAS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
15Z OUT OF THE SSW/SW. GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE 0Z, WHEN WINDS WILL LESSEN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CEILINGS
WILL BE VFR TO SKC. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SHRA AND
TSRA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE NORTH/NW, BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THEIR LOCATION TO INCLUDE THEM IN THIS
ISSUANCE YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 74 94 71 / 0 0 40 30
CLARKSVILLE 96 73 93 70 / 20 20 50 60
CROSSVILLE 86 65 87 66 / 0 0 20 10
COLUMBIA 95 72 96 70 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 89 69 89 68 / 0 0 30 20
JAMESTOWN 87 69 87 67 / 0 0 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 92 70 94 69 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 95 72 95 70 / 0 0 20 20
WAVERLY 94 74 93 71 / 10 10 30 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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