203
FXUS64 KOHX 091734
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN UNTIL
8 PM FOR HEAT INDICIES NEAR 105 DEGREES.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK.
- A WETTER PATTERN KICKS OFF THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 597 H5 RIDGE CONTINUED TO BRING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HEAT TO MIDDLE TN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH WERE PUMPING IN
HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO TOP 100 FOR MANY AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SOUTH WINDS WERE
BRINGING SLIGHT SWEAT RELIEF WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN A LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HOT AND HUMID, BUT WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY UNDER
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 BY LATE DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE WEAK, DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIP INTO
MIDDLE TN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS FRONTAL ZONE,
ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES, WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL STAY HOT AND
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100. THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND STORM CHANCES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS THANKS TO WEAK FORCING, POOR LAPSE
RATES, AND GENERALLY WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WINDS.
UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS SHOW THE BUILDUP OF ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN AND WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT HEAT HEADLINES FOR MANY AREAS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN
9-12 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR CKV LATE
TONIGHT, WARRANTING A PROB30. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW 10 KTS. LOW TO MEDIUM STORM
CHANCES BETWEEN 30-50% RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 94 71 92 / 0 40 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 70 89 / 20 50 60 60
CROSSVILLE 65 87 66 87 / 0 20 10 60
COLUMBIA 72 96 70 95 / 0 10 10 60
COOKEVILLE 69 89 68 89 / 0 30 20 60
JAMESTOWN 69 87 67 86 / 0 30 30 60
LAWRENCEBURG 70 94 69 93 / 0 10 10 50
MURFREESBORO 72 95 70 95 / 0 20 20 60
WAVERLY 74 93 71 90 / 10 30 50 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>007-023>027.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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