960
FXUS64 KOHX 100336
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- A WETTER PATTERN KICKS OFF STARTING THURSDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
REMNANTS OF AN MCS ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND THE TN RIVER, BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FALLING APART IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THIS IS DUE TO A STOUT MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT MAY
TOUCH 105 HEAT INDEX IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.
WHAT BARELY QUALIFIES AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH IT. THE BETTER KINEMATIC SUPPORT IS DISPLACED OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MOIST
PROFILE AND 2000+ J/KG CAPE, WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 2PM AND 7PM. WILL ALSO NOTE THE STORM
MOTIONS ALONG THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY CREATE SOME
TRAINING STORMS AND RESULTANT LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
EXPECT THIS SAME FRONT TO STALL OUT ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
FRIDAY, TRAPPING MIDDLE TN ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. AGAIN, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 90S DESPITE 60+% POPS. AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN ON
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, BUT THIS
ISN'T A WIDESPREAD WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY, FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS EARLY FALL HEAT WAVE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM SHORTWAVE FEATURES; THERE IS VERY
LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN THIS PATTERN. NEVERTHELESS, WE'LL HAVE
POPS ABOVE 50% THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH GROSSLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, NO CLEAR RELIEF IS IN
SIGHT. LREF MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS PLACE ANOTHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AGAIN NEXT WEEK,
NEARING THE UPPER END OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
CKV HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY A SHOWER OR STORM
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN CKV
AND BNA MOVING SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE IT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES PRIOR TO REACHING BNA. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS ON
THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL BE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE S/SW THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 94 71 93 / 10 50 50 60
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 70 90 / 30 60 70 60
CROSSVILLE 65 87 66 88 / 0 20 20 50
COLUMBIA 72 96 70 95 / 0 20 20 50
COOKEVILLE 69 89 68 90 / 0 40 40 50
JAMESTOWN 69 87 67 87 / 0 30 40 50
LAWRENCEBURG 70 94 69 93 / 0 20 10 50
MURFREESBORO 72 96 70 95 / 0 30 20 40
WAVERLY 74 93 71 91 / 20 40 50 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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