362
FXUS64 KOHX 101713
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1213 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY.
- LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
FLASH FLOODING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
NORTHERN SECTIONS EXPERIENCED A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH
REMNANTS OF STORMS THAT CAME FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KICK OFF NEW
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA AS
A WEAK FRONT DRAPES ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE (AROUND 2 KJ/KG) TO MAKE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH BRIEF FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, TEMPS
WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT UPPER 80S PLATEAU.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100, BUT MOSTLY
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIP INTO THE MID STATE AND
STALL OUT ON FRIDAY, TRAPPING MIDDLE TN IN A MUGGY, UNSETTLED
REGIME. THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
FOR SATURDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND RAIN COVERAGE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BEING EXCESSIVELY HOT, BUT IT WILL STILL
BE VERY WARM AND HUMID. ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, BUT PARAMETERS LIKE SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORM THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STAY HIGH
THROUGH SATURDAY, SO BRIEF, LOCAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
AFTER SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF WITH GENERALLY LOW
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING UP AGAIN. THIS WILL PUMP UP THE HEAT WITH
SOME AREAS REACHING MIDDLE 90S AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF RELIEF BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONT DROPPING TEMPS DOWN TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. THERE IS STILL A
WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TRENDING TOWARD
80S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS ENTERED MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
MOST OF THE DAY'S ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN AREAS NORTH OF I-40, SO
WE'VE INCLUDED AFTERNOON PROB30 TS/CBS AT KCKV, AND ALSO KBNA AND
KSRB. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT IN A FEW
SPOTS. OTHERWISE, TAFS ARE VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT/CALM WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 94 71 90 / 30 40 30 80
CLARKSVILLE 70 91 70 90 / 60 40 40 70
CROSSVILLE 66 88 66 83 / 10 30 50 90
COLUMBIA 70 95 70 91 / 20 30 40 80
COOKEVILLE 68 90 69 85 / 20 30 50 90
JAMESTOWN 67 88 68 84 / 20 40 50 90
LAWRENCEBURG 69 94 69 90 / 10 30 40 90
MURFREESBORO 70 96 70 91 / 20 30 40 90
WAVERLY 71 91 71 90 / 40 40 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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