387
FXUS64 KOHX 110357
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A FAIRLY ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS GRADUALLY
APPROACHING MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIES A
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PWS ARE UP TO ~2.0" AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHED
2,500 J/KG EARLIER TODAY. WE ALSO HAVE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW
WHICH IS BRINGING 25-35 KTS EFF. BULK SHEAR INTO THE AREA. WE'VE
ESSENTIALLY COVERED THE BASIC INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND,
HENCE, WHY WE'VE BEEN COVERED IN A "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS
STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY, BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL RESIDE IN THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTION
THAT SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH HEATING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
BY SUNDAY WE'LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT WEATHER DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA, BUT WITH A QUICK RECOVERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A SLOW-MOVING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT WILL
PERSIST. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW AND MAINLY LIMITED
TO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN WE START TO SEE A LITTLE MOISTURE
RECOVERY TO FOSTER DIURNAL CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE TN
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DO EXPECT THESE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAY CAUSE PATCHY
FOG RESULTING IN MVFR VIS IN SOME LOCATIONS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IF THERE WILL BE DIRECT IMPACTS
TO TERMINALS, BUT INTRODUCED ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP FOR MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN STORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 93 70 89 / 30 40 50 70
CLARKSVILLE 70 90 69 89 / 60 50 40 70
CROSSVILLE 66 88 66 81 / 0 30 30 90
COLUMBIA 70 95 69 90 / 10 30 50 80
COOKEVILLE 68 90 68 84 / 10 20 40 80
JAMESTOWN 67 87 67 82 / 20 30 30 80
LAWRENCEBURG 69 94 68 88 / 0 20 40 80
MURFREESBORO 70 96 70 91 / 10 20 50 70
WAVERLY 71 91 70 88 / 40 60 40 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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