159
FXUS64 KOHX 110514
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1214 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A FAIRLY ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS GRADUALLY
APPROACHING MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIES A
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PWS ARE UP TO ~2.0" AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHED
2,500 J/KG EARLIER TODAY. WE ALSO HAVE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW
WHICH IS BRINGING 25-35 KTS EFF. BULK SHEAR INTO THE AREA. WE'VE
ESSENTIALLY COVERED THE BASIC INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS AND,
HENCE, WHY WE'VE BEEN COVERED IN A "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS
STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY, BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL RESIDE IN THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTION
THAT SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH HEATING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
BY SUNDAY WE'LL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT WEATHER DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA, BUT WITH A QUICK RECOVERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A SLOW-MOVING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT WILL
PERSIST. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW AND MAINLY LIMITED
TO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN WE START TO SEE A LITTLE MOISTURE
RECOVERY TO FOSTER DIURNAL CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
OVERALL WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A BOUNDARY THROUGH 11Z FOR
KCKV, MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z FOR KCKV/KCSV/KSRB. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
MVFR/IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 6 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 70 89 69 / 40 50 70 10
CLARKSVILLE 90 69 89 68 / 50 40 70 0
CROSSVILLE 88 66 81 64 / 30 30 90 30
COLUMBIA 95 69 90 68 / 30 50 80 10
COOKEVILLE 90 68 84 66 / 20 40 80 20
JAMESTOWN 87 67 82 65 / 30 30 80 30
LAWRENCEBURG 94 68 88 67 / 20 40 80 10
MURFREESBORO 96 70 91 68 / 20 50 70 20
WAVERLY 91 70 88 69 / 60 40 60 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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