251
FXUS64 KOHX 242317
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40.
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
- WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK; THE NEXT APPRECIABLE
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TODAY IS GOING TO END UP THE 29TH STRAIGHT DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AT BNA; THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 36. NEEDLESS TO SAY, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM OUR NEXT
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE ARE A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS SHOWING UP ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THATS ALL WE
ARE GETTING TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A PESKY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND AN
UPPER RIDGE ALIGNED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS QUITE DRY AND STABLE, WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. OVERNIGHT,
WE DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-40.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
IT'S BEEN ANOTHER LOW OVERCAST MORNING SO FAR ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE
STRATUS DECK AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN TO RETURN. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM A
LITTLE MORE THAN YESTERDAY, BUT HIGHS WERE STILL KNOCKED DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM NBM GUIDANCE. WE'VE SEEN SOME SHOWERS ON THE
PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND THOSE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE EASTERN
FOURTH OF THE CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
FILTERING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
50S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. A FEW SPOTS ALONG
THE PLATEAU MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING SPLENDID WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. FORTUNATELY AND UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH WILL TRY TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD BUT THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS
TROUGH WILL BE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD. WE CERTAINLY NEED THE RAIN WITH THE NEW DROUGHT
STATEMENT SHOWING ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
MORNING STRATUS IS FINALLY IMPROVING WITH MIXING/HEATING NOW
OCCURING. SHOULD BE VFR AT BNA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WINDS
ARE NE AT 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SKY
COVER AND PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS NEAR CSV.
WE'RE FORECASTING A PRETTY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WIND. THIS WILL SUPPORT RADIATION FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HIGH
CONFIDENCE WE'LL HAVE IFR VIS AT SRB AND CSV TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, POTENTIALLY LIFR. LOWEST VIS AT SRB AND CSV IS
08-13Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FG AND VARIABLE VIS REDUCTION
AT MQY. LOW CONFIDENCE AT BNA AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 57 82 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 54 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 59 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 57 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 54 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 59 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 59 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 59 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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