178
FXUS64 KOHX 250333
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1033 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-40.
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
- WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING NICELY TONIGHT WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE MID
TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OUT SO TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. FOG WILL BE
MOST COMMON ALONG RIVER VALLEYS, BUT BE CAUTIOUS IF YOU HAVE TO
TRAVEL OVERNIGHT JUST IN CASE. FRIDAY LOOKS PICTURE-PERFECT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S ON THE PLATEAU WITH LOW TO
MID 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-STATE. WE WILL REMAIN PINNED
BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
RIDGING WILL EXPAND WEST OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA TO START THE WEEK,
BUMPING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION WILL WORKS ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK,
EVENTUALLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING LOW TO
MEDIUM 20-40% RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS
QUESTIONS REMAINS ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW WILL MOVE AND HOW
DEEP IT WILL BE. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NBM QPF GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THIS, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS TRACKS AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WOULD CERTAINLY BENEFIT FROM THE RAIN AS ALL
OF MIDDLE TN IS NOW IN SOME FORM OF DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A SURFACE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST REFUSES TO BUDGE. WE DO EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THE GREATEST. EXPECT VFR WX TOMORROW ONCE THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DISSIPATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 82 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 57 82 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 54 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 59 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 57 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 54 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 59 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 59 83 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 59 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
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