626
FXUS64 KOHX 271733
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- PLEASANT WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
80S TO LOWER 90S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THIS SUNDAY MORNING, A VERY COMFORTABLE PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND SURROUNDING AREAS. NATIONAL MAPS SHOWED A
STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, NORTHERLY FLOW WAS BRINGING US DRY AIR
WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ALMOST
DESERT-LIKE AIR WAS GIVING US COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS, AND THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
AFTER MONDAY, THE EAST COAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DEPART AS THE
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A MAJOR WARMUP WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S BY MIDWEEK. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE TIME BRINGING HIGHER
HUMIDITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT.
WE COULD ALL USE SOME RAIN AS WE WRAP UP THE (LIKELY) WARMEST AND
DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD FOR NASHVILLE, BUT THINGS LOOK DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. OUR NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN
INCREASES THOSE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE FIRST CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD COME AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE SYSTEMS MAY
BE SLOWED OR PARTIALLY DEFLECTED BY THE STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGE.
RIGHT NOW, MY PERSONAL PREFERENCE LIES WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING
THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY BASED ON THE STRONG
SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ECMWF THEN SHOWS A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
SOAKING RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR NOW, THE NBM
WILL SPREAD RAIN MEDIUM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY / VARYING MODELS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, BUT HIGHS COULD BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
BREEZY N/NE WINDS AND FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THERE'S A CHANCE FOR FOG ACROSS
THE PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ONCE CONDITIONS
RETURN TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT N/NE
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 53 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 50 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 47 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 52 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 48 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 49 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 82 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 49 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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