432
FXUS64 KOHX 300048
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 745 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP FRIDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
NOT A LOT TO PASS ALONG FOR THE SHORT-TERM UPDATE THANKS TO DRY,
STABLE AIR IN THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WARMING IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES,
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CREEPING UP, RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT,
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH NOT RECORD-SETTING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAT RISK WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MODERATE CATEGORY, SO KEEP THAT IN MIND FOR YOUR DAYTIME
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WE HAVE JUST ONE MORE DAY TO GO BEFORE OFFICIALLY WRAPPING UP THE
HOTTEST AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD.
THE START OF OCTOBER WILL BRING SOME QUICK CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER, BUT THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LAST JUST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE WE SETTLE BACK INTO A VERY PLEASANT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR SEVERAL FEATURES TO COME TOGETHER LATE
THIS WEEK TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN INTO OUR AREA. THE FIRST WILL
BE A DISTURBANCE WITH A POCKET OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP
FROM THE GULF. THE NEXT WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. FINALLY, A BIG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COME FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRE-LOADED
WITH PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE INTERPLAY OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLEX SETUP DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW
MUCH RAIN WE GET.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE FORECAST FRIDAY. THIS
WILL TAKE THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. IF NASHVILLE (BNA) GOES THE ENTIRE DAY FRIDAY
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL, THAT WILL OFFICIALLY BREAK THE RECORD
FOR THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT RAINFALL; 36 DAYS IS THE
CURRENT RECORD.
BY SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE AS THE VARIOUS
FEATURES CONVERGE ON OUR AREA, INCLUDING ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH OVER 2
INCHES, OR 95TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SO A SOAKING RAIN
EVENT IS LIKELY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. MOST LIKELY WE ARE
LOOKING AT ONE HALF TO 1.5" TOTALS, BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET
HEAVIER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS OF SHOWERS. THE LOCATION AND PERSISTENCE OF A MAIN, HEAVIER
BAND OF RAIN WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT, SO IT
LOOKS LIKE OUR SOUTHEAST HALF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
TOTALS. ALSO WITH THE FRONT TRENDING FASTER, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY GET SWEPT OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY. NORTHWEST AREAS COULD BREAK OUT INTO PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT SCOOTS ON THROUGH THE
AREA. BUT WITH AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN, WE MAY DEAL WITH POST-
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIP FOR A WHILE, PERHAPS LASTING INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA, WE WILL BE SET
UP FOR A VERY NICE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AIR AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS A FEW CLEAR DAYS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT, SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 92 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 57 92 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 54 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 59 86 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 57 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 56 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 58 93 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 58 88 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....UNGER
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