883
FXUS64 KOHX 010337
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1037 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 80S TO MID 90S THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH COOLER,
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THURSDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY OVERALL, THOUGH, THANKS TO LACK OF FORCING DESPITE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT'LL ALSO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS CURRENTLY. THIS WILL WORK EAST CLOSER TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH IN A WEAKENING STATE AS
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHEAR/LIFT OUT INTO THE POLAR JET. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT AND AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE RESIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW
THANKS TO POOR LAPSE RATES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, OR TO OUR
SOUTH ALL TOGETHER, THOUGH CLOUDINESS AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SHAPING UP FOR THE START TO THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP FAVORING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE'S MEDIUM-HIGH RAIN CHANCES, MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND BEST CHANCES ARE SOUTH OF I-40
AND ACROSS THE PLATEAU. CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT-MEDIUM RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF
0.5-1.5" ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS SETTING UP
(RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION). FINALLY, A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT OCCURS,
A PERIOD OF STABLE, COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CATS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SSW GUSTS OF 15 TO
18 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 94 72 88 / 0 0 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 65 94 70 82 / 0 0 30 80
CROSSVILLE 59 85 64 83 / 0 0 0 50
COLUMBIA 64 94 70 90 / 0 0 10 70
COOKEVILLE 64 88 69 85 / 0 0 0 70
JAMESTOWN 62 86 67 83 / 0 0 0 70
LAWRENCEBURG 63 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 50
MURFREESBORO 65 95 71 90 / 0 0 0 60
WAVERLY 66 90 70 80 / 0 0 30 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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