030
FXUS64 KOHX 011727
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 80S TO MID 90S THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH COOLER,
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
IT'S ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE LIKE YESTERDAY. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY IS THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. THE MUCH-
ADVERTISED RAIN MAKER WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW AND SOME ASCENT OVER THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THIS WILL ALSO SHOVE THE
BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH PUTTING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF PICKING UP AT LEAST
HALF AN INCH AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF PICKING UP AT LEAST ONE INCH.
WHILE THE RAIN IS WELCOMED, IT WILL NOT DO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RELIEVING THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA. TODAY'S NEW DROUGHT MONITOR
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF THE D2 (MODERATE DROUGHT) AND D3 (SEVERE
DROUGHT) ACROSS WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. UNFORTUNATELY, AFTER
THE WEEKEND RAIN, THE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN TURNS DRY NEXT WEEK WITH NO
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY CREEP UP INTO THE 80S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
GUSTS WILL LET UP THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z, AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD
OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TSRA AND SHRA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW
AROUND 12Z ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 89 65 79 / 0 70 60 40
CLARKSVILLE 71 82 61 75 / 0 80 50 40
CROSSVILLE 63 83 64 77 / 0 50 50 70
COLUMBIA 69 91 67 82 / 0 50 50 40
COOKEVILLE 68 85 66 76 / 0 60 50 50
JAMESTOWN 66 84 65 74 / 0 60 60 60
LAWRENCEBURG 68 90 67 82 / 0 40 40 50
MURFREESBORO 71 91 68 82 / 0 50 40 50
WAVERLY 71 81 64 73 / 0 70 60 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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