995
FXUS64 KOHX 152259
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
- THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL
SEE THE FIRST LIGHT FROST OF THE SEASON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE ARE ONLY VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
AND NO RAIN CHANCES AFTER FRIDAY, SO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A WARM FRONT REMAINS SITUATED TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE ARE A FEW RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS
KENTUCKY, BUT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MID STATE ARE NEGLIGIBLE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BLAST THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AIR MASSES, ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES AND
MINUSCULE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH TOMORROW'S FROPA.
INDEED, THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BUT THE TEMPERATURES THAT AWAIT ON THE OTHER SIDE ARE GOING TO
FEEL MARVELOUS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHILE WE'RE LOOKING AT ONE MORE DAY OF RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH
TODAY, MANY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO WAKE UP TO FROST SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND OTHER TRADITIONAL "COOL
SPOTS" AROUND THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP GRADUALLY AFTER THIS WEEKEND, BUT WE
DON'T EXPECT TO STRAY TOO FAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EVEN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, AFTER FRIDAY, THERE ARE NO MORE
WEATHER-PRODUCING SYSTEMS COMING OUR WAY ANY TIME SOON. THEREFORE,
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN, AT LEAST IN THE NEAR-TERM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 22KT AND WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
COVERAGE AND IMPACTS APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATE FRIDAY FOR CKV/BNA/MQY, BUT A LOT
OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 69 46 62 / 0 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 57 65 43 62 / 10 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 62 73 41 54 / 0 20 20 0
COLUMBIA 63 72 44 63 / 0 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 62 71 44 57 / 0 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 62 72 42 55 / 0 30 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 63 73 44 61 / 0 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 64 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0
WAVERLY 58 64 45 60 / 0 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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