000
FXUS64 KOHX 160339
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1039 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
- THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL
SEE THE FIRST LIGHT FROST OF THE SEASON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE ARE ONLY VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
AND NO RAIN CHANCES AFTER FRIDAY, SO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE MORE OVERCAST THAN TODAY WAS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS
MOSTLY DEPRIVED OF MOISTURE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS ON THE KY/TN STATE LINE. NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL QPF
WITH THESE CHANCES, BUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE VARIED OVER THE AREA: IN THE MID 60S IN THE NW TO
THE MID 70S IN THE SE.
THE REAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE FELT SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S. SO BREAK OUT THOSE JACKETS IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY, YOU'LL
BE NEEDING THEM THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL HAVE SOME SPOTS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
LOOKING AT THEIR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WORK WEEK,
UNFORTUNATELY WARMING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
MID WEEK. FORTUNATELY, WE LOOK TO STAY AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
TEMPERATURES, AND NOT GET AS ANOMALOUSLY WARM AS WE WERE THIS WEEK.
THE FORECAST HAS NO PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNDAY, SO THIS IS BAD NEWS
FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 22KT AND WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
COVERAGE AND IMPACTS APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATE FRIDAY FOR CKV/BNA/MQY, BUT A LOT
OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 69 47 62 / 0 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 57 66 44 62 / 0 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 62 73 41 54 / 0 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 63 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 62 70 44 57 / 0 30 10 0
JAMESTOWN 62 71 42 54 / 0 40 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 63 73 45 61 / 0 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 64 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0
WAVERLY 58 64 45 60 / 10 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....13
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