748
FXUS64 KOHX 181702
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S, MAYBE SOME LOWER 80S LATE WEEK.
- DRY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WORSENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND WONDERFULLY COOL-ISH TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF
MIDDLE TN AT FORECAST TIME. WITH A LITTLE BREEZE, FALL HAS ARRIVED.
HOWEVER, IT IS OCTOBER AND THAT MEANS DREADFULLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
IF YOU CAME HERE LOOKING FOR RELIEF IN THAT CATEGORY, YOU'VE COME TO
THE WRONG PLACE. THROUGH MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
AS TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND, WE'LL START TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY STAY THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NO RECORD
BREAKING HEAT, BUT MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH COOL MORNINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE OTHER THING THAT
WILL BE COMMON IS THE LACK OF RAIN. 240 HOURS IN THE GFS AND EURO
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT. THIS MEANS WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHEN
WE'RE ALREADY HURTING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT YOU MAY WANT TO START
THINKING TWICE BEFORE INITIATING ANY OUTDOOR FIRES FOR A WHILE.
MAYBE NOVEMBER WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WINDS WILL CALM IN THE EVENING, WITH SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WE COULD SEE SOME FG AT NORTHERN TAF SITES, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 18Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 42 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 39 67 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 41 73 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 41 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 39 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 41 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 40 72 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 44 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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