209
FXUS64 KOHX 202303
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
603 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- MILD, SUNNY DAYS AND COOL, CLEAR NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- NO RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
GOING TO WORSEN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ANOTHER COOL, DRY, AND SUNNY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS PLACED A BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER. THE COLUMN IS EXTREMELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS, WHICH WILL
PREVENT ANY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS FROM THE INCOMING ALTOCU DECK
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP
MOISTURE VERY LOW WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HEATS THE SURFACE TO THE
MID 70S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THIS IS QUITE PLEASANT FOR
THE GENERAL POPULATION, THIS COMBINATION OF WARM AND VERY DRY AIR
ALSO CREATES ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, WHICH IS OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THIS IS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST LIKE NO OTHER; WHAT YOU SEE IS
WHAT YOU GET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT, DRY FUELS AND DRY AIR HAVE OUR GUARD UP FOR
FIRE DANGER FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, RESULTING IN MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN, LOVELY FOR MOST PEOPLE
BUT COMES AS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD WITH A RISK OF FIRE DANGER. ANY
FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE A MUCH EASIER TIME SPREADING UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS THE STATE
AND FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE LONGER WE GO WITHOUT
RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 45 76 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 43 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 41 71 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 45 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 42 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 42 70 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 43 75 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 43 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 46 74 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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