985
FGUS64 KORN 241537
ESGORN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER SLIDELL LA
1200 PM CST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
: VALID PERIOD 02/23/2026 - 05/24/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BLACK RIVER
ANNM7 8.0 15.0 25.0 40 77 8 19 <5 <5
PPBM7 16.0 19.0 21.0 10 35 <5 17 <5 10
:CURRENT RIVER
DNZM7 13.0 18.0 22.0 7 24 <5 14 <5 9
PWDM7 8.0 25.0 40.0 22 69 <5 10 <5 <5
VNBM7 20.0 23.0 27.0 <5 14 <5 9 <5 7
:JACKS FORK
ALYM7 9.0 12.0 16.0 9 30 <5 12 <5 7
EMCM7 12.0 15.0 20.0 <5 17 <5 9 <5 <5
:JAMES RIVER
GLNM7 15.0 25.0 31.0 21 42 7 19 <5 14
JAMM7 10.0 18.0 24.0 19 62 <5 19 <5 11
:MISSISSIPPI
CPGM7 32.0 37.0 42.0 52 81 32 63 16 42
CRTM7 32.0 41.0 43.0 53 74 7 20 <5 11
HKMK2 34.0 40.0 43.0 63 >95 40 70 26 58
NMDM7 34.0 40.0 44.0 40 63 9 26 <5 <5
THBI2 33.0 37.0 42.0 42 75 25 57 10 34
TPTM7 37.0 45.0 47.0 40 65 7 12 <5 <5
:OHIO RIVER
CIRI2 40.0 47.0 53.0 66 94 40 63 17 38
OLMI2 36.0 42.0 47.0 62 90 44 65 14 45
PAHK2 39.0 43.0 52.0 37 70 18 53 <5 15
SMLI2 40.0 48.0 50.0 32 62 7 19 5 15
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FSKM7 20.0 22.0 26.0 6 25 <5 24 <5 21
PAZM7 16.0 25.0 32.0 18 55 5 19 <5 9
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 02/23/2026 - 05/24/2026
95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BLACK RIVER
ANNM7 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 9.2/ 13.6/ 17.1/
PPBM7 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 11.5/ 16.2/ 17.5/
:CURRENT RIVER
DNZM7 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 3.2/ 9.9/ 14.3/
PWDM7 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 6.6/ 14.0/ 18.6/
VNBM7 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 6.1/ 11.9/ 15.2/
:JACKS FORK
ALYM7 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 6.0/ 8.6/ 10.7/
EMCM7 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 5.8/ 8.4/ 10.5/
:JAMES RIVER
GLNM7 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 12.7/ 20.9/ 27.0/
JAMM7 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 7.6/ 14.0/ 16.1/
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CPGM7 15.6/ 20.8/ 25.2/ 32.7/ 38.6/ 44.1/ 47.6/
CRTM7 22.0/ 22.2/ 24.9/ 32.8/ 35.5/ 38.4/ 43.0/
HKMK2 26.3/ 26.6/ 30.4/ 38.0/ 43.2/ 47.2/ 51.2/
NMDM7 21.2/ 21.5/ 24.7/ 32.4/ 36.5/ 38.9/ 42.7/
THBI2 14.8/ 19.5/ 23.8/ 31.0/ 37.0/ 42.1/ 45.5/
TPTM7 24.2/ 25.7/ 29.4/ 34.9/ 39.9/ 42.3/ 46.3/
:OHIO RIVER
CIRI2 32.7/ 33.2/ 37.2/ 44.9/ 50.2/ 55.4/ 59.4/
OLMI2 27.4/ 28.0/ 29.8/ 41.3/ 44.3/ 47.9/ 53.0/
PAHK2 22.7/ 24.6/ 27.0/ 36.0/ 41.6/ 44.5/ 51.2/
SMLI2 24.8/ 26.0/ 27.6/ 37.1/ 41.2/ 43.7/ 50.2/
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FSKM7 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 9.6/ 12.8/ 21.4/
PAZM7 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.2/ 12.8/ 19.3/ 25.1/
.END
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