144
FXUS66 KOTX 180251
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
651 PM PST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND RAIN AND SNOW FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTH IDAHO. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
CREATE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ACROSS THE PALOUSE AND
COLUMBIA BASIN. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD
TEMPERATURES AND A TREND OF MORE WET WEATHER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO DELAY THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN FOR WENATCHEE, LEAVENWORTH, STEVENS PASS,
THE METHOW VALLEY, AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU. AS OF 6 PM, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, WSDOT PASS REPORTS, AND WEB CAMERAS INDICATE THAT
AREAS NORTH OF STAMPEDE PASS AND ELLENSBURG HAVE REMAINED SNOW
SUGGESTING THAT HREF GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE PUSHING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
CASCADES. FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN TO BETWEEN
A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR COLES CORNER TO STEVENS PASS
AND BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO-TENTHS FOR PLAIN AND LEAVENWORTH.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
LIKELY 8 TO 15 INCHES. AS OF 5 PM, REPORTS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 12
INCHES WERE REPORTED AROUND PLAIN AND LEAVENWORTH WITH ANOTHER 1
TO 3 INCHES LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THE METHOW VALLEY, 4 TO
8 INCHES WERE REPORTED BY EARLY EVENING. BY MORNING AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO 6 INCHES WILL PUSH STORM TOTALS TO 7 TO 14 INCHES. /GKOCH
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY RAIN
EXPECTED EXCEPT THE METHOW AND OKANOGAN VALLEY, THOUGH AREAS OF
FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION IN THE CASCADE
VALLEYS AFTER 01-02Z. AREAS OF MELTING SNOW WILL CREATE
FOGGY/MISTY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12-15Z WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 50 KT. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL STRONG WINDS SCOUR OUT THE CURRENT
STRATUS DECK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT KEAT. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 46 31 39 32 41 / 100 70 0 0 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 32 45 31 41 32 43 / 100 80 0 0 10 0
PULLMAN 35 46 31 42 33 44 / 90 80 0 0 10 0
LEWISTON 41 54 34 46 36 48 / 60 40 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 29 43 24 36 30 40 / 100 80 0 10 20 10
SANDPOINT 31 42 29 37 31 40 / 100 90 0 10 20 10
KELLOGG 34 43 32 42 33 44 / 100 80 0 0 10 10
MOSES LAKE 35 47 30 42 33 43 / 30 20 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 31 44 29 37 32 40 / 60 30 0 10 10 0
OMAK 31 44 27 37 32 40 / 90 60 0 10 20 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COEUR D'ALENE
AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD
AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE
PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY.
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