398
FXUS66 KOTX 211802
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1002 AM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FALLING
PRIMARILY AS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHECK MOUNTAIN PASS
FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS OFTEN BEFORE TRAVELING. PERIODS OF HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MORNING UPDATE: FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK ALTHOUGH DID
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OMAK,
REPUBLIC, AND COLVILLE DUE TO THE COLD START TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TOUGH PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
IN THESE AREAS, AS WELL AS THE METHOW VALLEY WITH A DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER STRADDLING 0C. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S, THE FORECAST IS LEANING TOWARDS A RAIN/SNOW MIX,
OR WET NON-ACCUMULATION SNOW. BUT IF THE INTENSITY COMES DOWN
HARD ENOUGH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1" ARE POSSIBLE. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS
OF NE WA/N IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A TENDENCY TO
BREAKUP AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED AT WENATCHEE AND WINTHROP AND WILL
SPREAD EAST TROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR STRATUS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS PULLMAN AND LEWISTON WHERE THE HREF GUIDANCE IS
FAVORING A BETTER CHANCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AROUND OMAK THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN -FZRA REPORTED AT 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 20Z AND THEN A WINTRY MIX RAIN AND SNOW 20Z-24Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN FOR ALL
TAF SITES. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 401 AM PST SAT DEC 21 2024/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP US IN AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH TWO MORE SHORTWAVES ON TRACK TO
RIPPLE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING. IN GENERAL, MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW AND VALLEYS WILL SEE
RAIN. HOWEVER, LOWLAND LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING LEAVENWORTH,
WINTHROP, REPUBLIC, METALINE FALLS, AND BONNERS FERRY MAY SEE A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT DUE TO
LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND COLDER AIR STRUGGLING TO MIX AWAY FROM THE
SURFACE.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OF THE WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. HEAVIER SNOW IN
THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE, WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FORECAST FOR STEVENS PASS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S, AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. PASS TRAVEL MAY BE CHALLENGING
AT TIMES, SO BE SURE TO MONITOR PASS CONDITIONS IF TRAVELING.
/FEWKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A PROGRESSIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED BASICALLY
EVERY DAY ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST, THOUGH CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE DRIER DAYS. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES FOR MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER,
SO ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS/PASSES AND COMMUNITIES ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET IN ELEVATION.
IN ADDITION TO THE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, STREAMS/RIVERS/ETC WILL
LIKELY SEE INCREASED FLOW, AND DAILY BOUTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. /KD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 43 34 42 36 43 35 / 80 90 0 80 10 50
COEUR D'ALENE 43 34 42 36 42 34 / 70 100 0 90 40 40
PULLMAN 46 31 42 37 45 35 / 80 90 0 90 30 50
LEWISTON 49 36 47 40 51 40 / 60 70 0 80 20 40
COLVILLE 36 30 38 33 40 32 / 80 90 20 90 20 50
SANDPOINT 41 33 42 34 37 33 / 60 100 0 100 60 40
KELLOGG 46 35 42 38 40 34 / 70 100 0 100 70 40
MOSES LAKE 40 31 42 34 43 37 / 90 20 30 70 0 80
WENATCHEE 39 32 38 33 40 36 / 90 10 50 80 0 80
OMAK 35 30 40 32 42 34 / 90 40 30 90 0 80
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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