881
FXUS66 KOTX 161053
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
253 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MANY AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: SNOW CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS DOWN IN LEWISTON WHERE THEY HAVE WARMED TO 34 DEGREES. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FOR THEM WILL BE RAIN OR NON ACCUMULATING
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY
MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOUT 130% OF NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO OREGON MONDAY. GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL
KEEP SNOW GOING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE TEENS BY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN WA AND ID.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SNOW
HAS ENDED FOR THE WENATCHEE AREA AND WILL BE COMING TO AN END FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS
EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID SEEING 2 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES OF SEEING OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD IS 15-30% FOR STEVENS COUNTY AND UP TO 50% FOR PEND
OREILLE COUNTY; 80-90% FOR BONNER COUNTY; 50-70% FOR KOOTENAI
COUNTY. SPOKANE PROPER HAS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF SEEING 2 INCHES.
BUT AS YOU GO FURTHER FROM THE METRO PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO
50% (THIS INCLUDES MEDICAL LAKE, CHENEY, SPANGLE, GREEN BLUFF),
WITH 60-70% NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. FOR THE PALOUSE IT IS ABOUT
20-40% CHANCE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF WHITMAN COUNTY AND ACROSS THE ID PALOUSE.
WE REMAIN IN THIS PHASE OF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY
AS A DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON AND A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. OUR FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF SNOW, MAINLY TO
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WA.
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. /NISBET
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE REGION STARTS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND MONDAYS EXITING WAVE. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND LOWER IDAHO
PANHANDLE. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO AN INCH. HIGHS FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. A NORTHEASTERN FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 20S, THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
GENERATE A LOW OFF OF NORTHERN OREGON COAST. WHILE IT WILL BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST, IT WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER UPPER LEVEL AIR ALONG WITH IT. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL
THE WARM AIR CAN SCRUB OUT THE COLDER LOW LEVELS, IT COULD MAKE
DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY. FOR NOW,
THE GFS AND EC ARE KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A SNOW. THE CANADIAN HAS
A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND LOWER IDAHO
PANHANDLE. AS FOR AMOUNTS, THE HIGHER TERRAINS COULD SEE ANOTHER 3-6
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW LANDS COULD SEE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REGION CAN
EXPECT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
HIGHS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING INTO THE 40S
AND LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND. THE LOWS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TREND
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CENTRAL WA WILL BEGIN
TO DRY OUT BY 15-18Z SUN, WHILE SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY OVER
EASTERN WA/N IDAHO, EXCEPT MIXING WITH RAIN AT KLWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 30 35 22 34 21 / 100 90 70 30 10 30
COEUR D'ALENE 33 28 35 21 34 18 / 100 100 90 40 20 20
PULLMAN 34 31 34 27 35 27 / 100 100 90 70 50 30
LEWISTON 39 35 40 33 39 30 / 80 90 90 60 40 20
COLVILLE 33 24 37 21 35 18 / 100 80 50 20 10 20
SANDPOINT 32 26 33 18 32 14 / 100 100 90 40 30 20
KELLOGG 34 31 35 21 33 16 / 100 100 100 70 40 20
MOSES LAKE 35 29 38 26 36 28 / 60 20 10 0 10 50
WENATCHEE 33 29 37 29 35 27 / 50 20 10 10 10 60
OMAK 33 26 38 22 36 26 / 60 20 10 20 10 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR LEWIS AND
SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON
PALOUSE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR MOSES
LAKE AREA-WATERVILLE PLATEAU.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY.
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