542
FXUS66 KOTX 171205
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
405 AM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL WARM INTO THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
LC VALLEY, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. BY THE AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE CASCADE CREST, SOUTHEAST WA AND
THE ID PANHANDLE. HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I90...MAINLY DOWN ON THE PALOUSE, CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS,
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. PROBABILITIES OF OF OVER AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ARE 40-60% FOR THE
WA PALOUSE; 80-90% FOR THE ID PALOUSE, CAMAS PRAIRIE, SHOSHONE
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CREST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING STEVENS
PASS. HIGHWAY 95 FROM SOUTH OF BONNERS FERRY TO THE
KOOTENAI/BENEWAH COUNTY LINE HAS ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE OF SEEING
AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE VALLEYS, WHICH WILL MAKE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON TREATED
ROADS DIFFICULT, BUT UNTREATED ROADS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE WHERE THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP GOOD OROGRAPHIC
FLOW INTO THE AREA, AND PLACES LIKE WINCHESTER COULD SEE 5 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS, IS
OF COURSE, SE WA AND THE SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE WHERE LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE. THE CONCERN AGAIN IS THE CAMAS PRAIRIE WHERE THEY
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
THE THE SNAKE RIVER AND LC VALLEY WILL SEE RAIN. /NISBET
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
GENERATE A LOW OFF OF THE OREGON COAST. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE
TRACK THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN OREGON. WHILE IT WILL BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST, IT WILL ALSO BRING
WARMER UPPER LEVEL AIR ALONG WITH IT. ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE WARM AIR CAN SCRUB
OUT THE COLDER LOW LEVELS, IT COULD MAKE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPE
FOR WEDNESDAY A LITTLE TRICKY. AS FOR AMOUNTS, THE HIGHER TERRAINS
COULD SEE ANOTHER 5-10 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW LANDS COULD
SEE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW IS IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE MORNING COMMUTE ISSUES FOR THE CASCADES VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO
6 INCHES IN THESE VALLEYS. HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 40S. A NORTHEASTERN FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 20S, THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AND
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
REGION CAN EXPECT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. HIGHS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD REACHING INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND. THE LOWS
CAN EXPECT THE SAME TREND CLIMBING INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOCALIZED SNOW MELT AND RAIN COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS FOR
CLOGGED DRAINS OR LOW LYING AREAS FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND START OF
NEXT WEEK. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OVER MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT IN
CENTRAL WA WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER
LEWISTON WILL ALSO SUPPORT RAIN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IFR/MVFR WITH ISOLATED LIFR OVER MOST OF THE REGION DUE TO
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS. BY THE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST WA, INCLUDING COE/PUW/LWS. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
SATURATED WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAT. DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WA/ID
VALLEYS LIKE BONNERS FERRY, COLVILLE AND OMAK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 26 35 20 34 31 / 60 10 0 0 80 80
COEUR D'ALENE 36 24 36 17 34 30 / 60 30 10 0 70 80
PULLMAN 33 27 35 26 36 32 / 100 60 50 0 80 90
LEWISTON 39 33 39 28 39 34 / 90 60 50 0 80 80
COLVILLE 33 19 36 19 34 26 / 10 10 0 10 70 60
SANDPOINT 34 24 35 15 32 29 / 60 20 0 0 70 80
KELLOGG 34 26 35 16 34 31 / 90 60 20 0 70 90
MOSES LAKE 37 27 37 30 36 30 / 60 10 0 20 90 30
WENATCHEE 36 29 36 27 35 29 / 30 0 0 40 90 20
OMAK 36 23 36 27 36 28 / 10 0 0 30 90 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COEUR
D'ALENE AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ
PERCE COUNTIES.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-SPOKANE AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SPOKANE AREA-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY.
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