748
FXUS66 KOTX 180553
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
953 PM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW AND RAIN. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
FORECAST UPDATE SENT TO EXPIRE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS, IDAHO PALOUSE, AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE WA PALOUSE AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED AND ONE LAST BOUT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS
THROUGH WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW WILL BE SLOWER TO END ON
THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND BLUE MOUNTAINS WHERE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 4AM. OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO AREAS OF DENSE
FREEZING FOG AND BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. /SB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
ONE LAST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO SE WA AND N ID WITH DRIER
WEATHER TO FOLLOW. SNOW ACCUM WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE AROUND WINCHESTER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND
ALTHOUGH SOME SITES ARE EXPERIENCING VFR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN RETURN OF LOW STRATUS AND
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. TIMING WHEN THIS SETS IN COMES WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER TUE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER NE WA/N IDAHO PANHANDLE SHOULD HELP THE
STRATUS BECOME SCATTERED AROUND KCOE-KGEG. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING TOP DOWN MOISTENING INTO THE CASCADES 00-06Z WITH -SN
DEVELOPING AROUND WINTHROP AND LEAVENWORTH. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO
KEAT AND KOMK 6-12Z AND THEN INTO E WA AND N ID AFTER 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT RESTRICTIONS OF STRATUS VS FOG AT ANY
PARTICULAR SITE GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. PROBABILITIES ARE
NEAR 80-90% THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT REMAIN VFR AND FAVOR LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR KPUW TO KGEG AND ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN
BUT ONLY 40-50% FOR KSFF, KCOE, KMWH. GIVEN CEILINGS ARE ALREADY
500 FEET AGL AT PUW, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KPUW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 27 35 22 35 30 38 / 0 0 0 70 70 20
COEUR D'ALENE 25 35 20 36 31 39 / 10 0 0 60 80 40
PULLMAN 29 34 26 35 32 35 / 30 30 0 90 90 60
LEWISTON 34 39 30 40 36 42 / 50 40 0 80 80 40
COLVILLE 20 36 21 36 26 42 / 0 0 10 70 60 10
SANDPOINT 25 35 20 34 29 39 / 10 10 0 60 80 60
KELLOGG 27 34 20 37 32 38 / 20 20 0 70 80 80
MOSES LAKE 27 37 29 37 30 42 / 0 0 20 90 30 0
WENATCHEE 29 35 31 36 29 42 / 0 0 40 90 20 0
OMAK 24 36 29 37 28 41 / 0 0 30 90 30 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR LEWIS AND
SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS.
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