197
FXUS66 KOTX 182350
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
350 PM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE LOWER
IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MELTING
SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TOMORROW: TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM. CHANGES COME THIS
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
STARTING IN THE CASCADES. OVERALL I AM EXPECTING 2-6” FOR
LEAVENWORTH, WENATCHEE, EPHRATA, GEORGE, AND WATERVILLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS EFFICIENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION TYPES BECOME MORE COMPLICATED IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AROUND MOSES LAKE TO COEUR D’ALENE AREA AS DRIER EAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO CHEW AWAY AT THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOCATIONS TO COOL OFF TONIGHT INTO THE 20S. POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF RITZVILLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY
BELOW FREEZING BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. HI-RES
MODELS SHOW AROUND 1-2” OF SNOW FOR SPOKANE/CDA LATE TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT I AM BETTING ON THE LOWER
END DUE TO TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING DURING THE EVENT AND
LACKLUSTER QPF AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
30S.
CHANCE OF 2+” OF SNOW 10 PM TUE - 10 PM WED:
SPOKANE/CDA: 15%
WENATCHEE: 70%
QUINCY: 50%
OMAK: 20%
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
THE PACNW ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL END, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COAST. A WEAK FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CASCADES,
NORTHEAST WA, AND NORTH ID. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
IMPACTING THE PACNW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THIS TIME RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN TO
OVER AN INCH IN THE IDAHO VALLEYS. THIS FORECAST CAN STILL CHANGE AS
WE MOVE CLOSER BUT THE RECENT SNOW, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS MAINLY IN
EASTERN WA. PARADISE CREEK IN THE PALOUSE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ORDER TO HELP LOCAL DRAINAGE,
MAKE SURE THAT GUTTERS AND STORM DRAINS ARE CLEAR FROM DEBRIS. /KK
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: INCREASING NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD HELP
THE STRATUS BECOME SCATTERED AROUND KCOE-KGEG. NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING TOP DOWN MOISTENING INTO THE CASCADES 00-06Z WITH -SN
DEVELOPING AROUND WINTHROP AND LEAVENWORTH. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO
KEAT AND KOMK AND THEN INTO E WA AND N ID AFTER 16Z BRINGING IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN KGEG-KSFF-KCOE BECOMING VFR AROUND 02-06Z BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES AROUND 16-17Z.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 24 34 31 37 29 39 / 0 90 80 20 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 22 34 32 38 29 40 / 0 90 90 30 20 20
PULLMAN 27 38 32 35 27 36 / 0 100 90 40 10 10
LEWISTON 29 40 35 40 30 41 / 0 90 80 30 10 0
COLVILLE 22 35 27 39 29 39 / 0 90 60 10 10 20
SANDPOINT 22 34 31 37 31 39 / 0 80 90 40 30 30
KELLOGG 24 37 32 37 31 40 / 0 90 100 70 20 20
MOSES LAKE 30 38 28 40 29 41 / 30 100 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 31 34 30 40 32 37 / 60 100 10 0 0 0
OMAK 30 37 29 38 31 38 / 30 90 20 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
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