436
FXUS66 KOTX 192211
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
211 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RAIN AND SNOWMELT
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOCAL HYDRO ISSUES FOR LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TOMORROW: SNOW IS CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO FOR THE SPOKANE AREA. AS EXPECTED, ROAD TEMPERATURES
HAVE LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SPOKANE/CDA AREA. AS THE DGZ
DRIES OUT, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO 3500+ FEET IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND THE
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL NOT
BUDGE MUCH (MID-UPPER 30S) WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER DESPITE
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. DB
FRIDAY TO TUESDAY: THE INLAND NW WILL SHIFT TO WARMER, WETTER
CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE MOVES IN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LOW, WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN COULD
REACH AS FAR AS SPOKANE, BUT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHEN A MODERATE TO STRONG ATMPSHERIC RIVER IMPACTS THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING INCREASED MOISTURE, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED, WITH
SNOW MORE LIKELY IN AREAS LIKE THE METHOW VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE SNOW
FROM THE LAST WEEK, RAPID SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN AREAS SUCH
AS SPOKANE COUNTY AND THE PALOUSE. PREPARE FOR THIS CHANGE IN
WEATHER BY CLEANING YOUR GUTTERS AND STORM DRAINS TO HELP REDUCE
FLOODING IMPACTS. ACTICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY, WITH MODELS
DIFFERING IN THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. /KK
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL WA
BRINGING PERIODIC MODERATE SNOW TO KEAT AND SNOW TO MOSES LAKE AND
EPHRATA. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SPOKANE REGION WITHIN AN
HOUR TO 90 MINUTES BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM,
SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN AT KGEG-KPUW BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z. THE
WARMER AIR OVERRUNNING THE SNOWPACK HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
VERY LOW CEILINGS AROUND SPOKANE AND LOW VISIBILITY. CEILINGS LESS
THAN 1000 FEET PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY KGEG-
KSFF-KCOE-KMWH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VERY LOW CIGS FOR KGEG AFTER THE SNOW ENDS TONIGHT.
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 36 26 39 34 41 / 80 10 0 10 40 50
COEUR D'ALENE 31 34 27 40 33 42 / 90 20 10 10 40 50
PULLMAN 31 36 25 36 33 39 / 90 20 0 0 30 40
LEWISTON 32 40 25 41 35 44 / 80 10 0 0 20 30
COLVILLE 27 37 28 38 31 40 / 60 10 10 30 60 60
SANDPOINT 29 36 28 38 33 40 / 90 40 20 30 60 80
KELLOGG 31 35 27 40 35 42 / 100 60 10 10 40 60
MOSES LAKE 27 39 28 40 30 43 / 10 0 0 10 20 40
WENATCHEE 28 37 29 37 32 39 / 10 0 0 10 20 50
OMAK 27 38 29 37 31 40 / 20 0 0 30 30 60
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY.
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