747
FXUS66 KOTX 280917
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
217 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, WITH SNOW RETURNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A DEEP LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
WILL SEND A SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES INTO THE REGION TODAY FOR
CONTINUED COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN LIMIT
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TODAY ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FROM SPOKANE DOWN THROUGH SE WASHINGTON EAST TO
THE ID/MT BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE CAM'S MODELS SHOW THE BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH NEAR 200 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TO
WORK WITH. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 4000-5000 FEET OVER
THE REGION WITH NEAR 2" FORECAST FOR SHERMAN PASS WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE OTHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY THE OFFSHORE LOW DISSOLVES BUT A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM IT
SWINGS EAST RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHOWERY DAY BUT LESS IN COVERAGE
COMPARED TO TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ID PANHANDLE, BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES AN ADDED BOOST WHILE ELSEWHERE
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. JW
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE
HOLDING A LOW OF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY
LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR THE LOW TO THE PUSH INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
3500-4000 FT, IT WILL BRING A ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND DAYTIME
RAIN OR OVERNIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE LOWLANDS. PASSES SHOULD GET 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION
RANGE OF 0.1-0.4". ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE. HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW RIGHT ON ITS HEELS EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
LOW IS NOT VERY HIGH TO PUT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBLE
IMPACTS. GFS HAS IT PUSHING INTO SOUTHER OREGON. THE EC KEEPS IT
PINNED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BC COAST. PRECIP TYPES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE SAME WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN TO WINTRY MIX FOR THE
LOWLANDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY OF THE AMOUNTS THROUGH. HIGHS FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDEPSREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE REGION IMPACTING MOST TERMINALS. BETTER CHANCES
(60-80%) FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS GEG-SFF-COE. WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AROUND 100-300 J/KG IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW,
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE AT THE TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS HIGH, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SHOWERS BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 53 35 53 33 54 38 / 80 20 10 0 0 50
COEUR D'ALENE 51 34 51 33 53 36 / 90 30 20 10 10 50
PULLMAN 51 34 49 32 53 37 / 90 20 20 0 0 60
LEWISTON 58 41 56 37 57 40 / 80 30 20 0 0 50
COLVILLE 52 31 52 31 54 35 / 90 50 30 10 10 30
SANDPOINT 48 36 49 33 52 35 / 90 60 40 10 20 40
KELLOGG 48 37 47 35 51 35 / 90 30 40 10 10 50
MOSES LAKE 58 34 58 33 59 42 / 30 10 0 0 0 50
WENATCHEE 55 36 56 36 54 40 / 40 10 10 0 0 50
OMAK 58 36 58 33 55 38 / 70 30 10 0 0 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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