126
FXUS66 KOTX 291102
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
402 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER OVER THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -29C. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ONE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITING MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER 80-90% OF NORMAL)
AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
DOWN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD
POOL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A DEEP
CLOSED LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE
SHOWING BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4500 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN 1-3"
OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. JW
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ONGOING PRECIP FROM THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW FOR THE PASSES
POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW RIGHT ON ITS HEELS EARLY WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO
HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT. THE LOW IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG
THE OREGON COAST. IT WILL BRING A COLD AIR PUSH TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. PRECIP TYPES WILL LIKELY BE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN TO
WINTRY MIX FOR THE LOWLANDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY OF THE AMOUNTS.
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL SHIFT THE LOW EAST AND DIMINISH THE SHOWER THREAT
FOR THE REGION. A WARM, DRY TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: PATCHY FOG IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING REPUBLIC, AND KELLOGG
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
KGEG/KSFF/COE HAVING A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (20%) OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER KCOE THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
CUMULUS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HEATING
ESPECIALLY OVER NE WASHINGTON, THE PALOUSE, AND THE ID PANHANDLE.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN MVFR CIG DEVELOPING NEAR 18Z AT KPUW (20%
CHANCE) AND KCOE (40% CHANCE) BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 54 33 58 41 53 33 / 20 10 0 60 80 40
COEUR D'ALENE 53 33 58 39 51 32 / 20 10 0 60 90 50
PULLMAN 49 32 56 39 49 32 / 10 10 0 60 90 40
LEWISTON 56 37 61 44 56 35 / 10 0 0 50 90 40
COLVILLE 54 30 57 37 51 34 / 20 10 0 50 90 50
SANDPOINT 51 34 55 37 48 33 / 20 10 10 50 100 70
KELLOGG 48 34 54 40 48 32 / 10 10 10 60 100 60
MOSES LAKE 59 33 61 41 58 34 / 10 0 0 60 40 10
WENATCHEE 56 36 57 41 55 35 / 10 0 0 60 50 10
OMAK 59 34 60 41 56 35 / 10 0 0 50 80 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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