465
FXUS66 KOTX 301217
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
517 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND MONDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL SEE A FAIRLY NICE
SUNDAY AS A LOW BEGINS TO PRESS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING LOW.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. IT HAS LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW
LEVELS AND LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAVE THE PASSES RECEIVING
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITY OF
AN INCH OF SNOW FOR THE PASSES ARE 38% FOR STEVENS, 88% FOR
SHERMAN, AND 88% FOR LOOKOUT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE REGION. MOST
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT NEAR AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN.
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" FOR THE NORTHERN WA MOUNTAINS,
SOUTHEAST WA, AND LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE INCREASED THE INSTABILITY FOR EXTREME EASTERN WA AND ID
PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ARE
~200J/KG WITH DECENT SHEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THESE AREAS FOR MONDAY. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. /JDC
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH RESULTING IN CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS DROP AS LOW AS 2000-2500 FEET DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS 3000-4000 FEET. OVERALL
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY ORGANIZED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
TROUGH AND THUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY, WITH ABOUT 25% OF THE ENSEMBLES
SHOWING A DEEPER LOW OVER THE AREA WHICH IF IT COMES TO FRUITION
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE
TOO ABOVE 2000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. BUT GIVEN ONLY 25% OF THE
ENSEMBLES ARE IN THIS CAMP THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AND DRYING TREND. 80% OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE WARMING WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY, AND THEN SOME LOCATIONS SURPASSING
70F ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE CLEAR WITH
FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. BY 4Z, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
INCLUDING KEAT, KMWH, KPUW, KLWS THEN SPREADING NORTH INTO KGEG,
KSFF, AND KCOE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT A
LOWERING CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AFTER AS LOWERING CLOUD DECK COULD CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE
IS A 10-15% CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT SFF, COE, PUW BETWEEN
SUNDAY 14-16Z AND 30-40% AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 58 41 52 35 52 35 / 0 70 70 20 30 10
COEUR D'ALENE 57 40 51 35 50 33 / 0 70 80 40 50 20
PULLMAN 55 41 50 34 49 34 / 0 70 80 30 50 30
LEWISTON 62 45 56 38 55 39 / 0 50 80 30 40 30
COLVILLE 57 38 51 34 52 31 / 0 70 80 30 40 20
SANDPOINT 55 38 49 35 48 34 / 0 80 90 50 70 30
KELLOGG 53 39 48 34 46 36 / 10 70 90 40 70 30
MOSES LAKE 62 42 57 36 58 35 / 0 50 30 10 10 0
WENATCHEE 57 41 54 36 56 37 / 10 70 40 10 10 0
OMAK 61 42 56 36 57 34 / 10 70 70 20 20 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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