298
FXUS66 KOTX 311927
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1227 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MORNING UPDATE: THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW ARE ALSO PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT LOW. ONE SHIFTED
ACROSS THE SPOKANE AREA EARLIER AND ANOTHER IS COMING UP FROM
NORTHEAST OREGON. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS TODAY. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS:
NORTH AND THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE LATTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
BECOMING THE HIGHER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY EXPANDING IN. BETWEEN THESE
TWO AREAS A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, IN HIT-
AND- MISS VARIETY UNDER THE TROUGH. THE DEFORMATION AXIS WRAPS
BACK INTO INTO THE PARENT LOW THAT SITS OFF THE COAST AND THAT
FEATURE WILL BE SHIFTING IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO WHILE THAT FIRST
TWO DISTURBANCES EXIT, THAT DEFORMATION AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITAITON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, I'VE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE-TUNE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALSO TO INCREASE THEM A BIT
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM AROUND LEE OF THE CASCADES AND WESTERN
BASIN IN THE VICINITY OF THAT DEFORMATION AXIS AND OVER A BROADER
AREA GOING INTO TUESDAY PM WITHIN THE SAME UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH.
I ALSO REDUCED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EVENING, BECOME MORE ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. EMBEDDED T-STORMS WITH LIGHTNING
POSSIBLE FROM 21-04Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AM. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR EASTERN WA AND ID THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN VFR. THEN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY AM (10-14Z) MODELS SHOW AN EXPANDING MVFR STRATUS DECK
OVER THE EAST WA AND NORTH ID, WITH A SOME RISK FOR IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. GEG/SFF/COE HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF MVFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY FOR CIGS IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID. 40-70% CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD TUESDAY AM NEAR GEG/SFF/COE.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT GEG/SFF/COE. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN -TSRA AT TAF SITES, BUT BEST RISK NEAR PUW/LWS 20-03Z.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 35 51 34 51 33 / 50 20 20 20 20 20
COEUR D'ALENE 49 34 49 35 49 33 / 80 40 40 30 40 30
PULLMAN 48 33 48 36 47 32 / 70 20 20 20 30 10
LEWISTON 55 37 56 40 54 36 / 70 30 10 10 20 10
COLVILLE 52 33 53 31 52 31 / 50 20 30 30 30 30
SANDPOINT 48 35 48 36 46 33 / 80 40 50 30 70 60
KELLOGG 47 36 45 37 44 34 / 80 50 40 30 70 30
MOSES LAKE 58 36 59 35 58 33 / 20 30 20 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 56 38 58 37 56 36 / 40 40 20 10 0 0
OMAK 56 37 60 35 57 33 / 50 40 10 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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