786
FXUS66 KOTX 011132
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
432 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. A COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY: CURRENTLY, A LOW IS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. BANDS OF SHOWERS CIRCLING
AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLDER AIR HAS
USHERED IN LOWER SNOW LEVELS. MOISTURE BEING PRESSED INTO THE
CASCADES WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW. STEVENS PASS IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" THROUGH THE MORNING. LOOKOUT AND SHERMAN
PASS ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP TO TWO INCHES. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
3000FT, THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX IN THE LOWLANDS
BUT ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY
THE AFTERNOON, THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND DRIER AIR
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WITH
THE DRIER UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET TO START. A SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP DOWN FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAINS FRO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. /JDC
THURSDAY: ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN US AS THE RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WA
AND THE ID PANHANDLE. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FINAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES
MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
HAVE ADDED A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SPOKANE EAST TO THE
ID/MT BORDER AND SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE PALOUSE, BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
CAMAS PRAIRIE AREAS. ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 50S FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY WIDESPREAD 60S WITH AROUND 70 FOR
PARTS OF THE LC VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH OF MOSES LAKE. DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS
TO REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS STILL
SHOWING DRIER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE,
WHICH COULD IMPACT LOW TEMPS, AS WELL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FOR ANY PRESCRIBED BURNS PLANNED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
RIDGE BEING TRANSIENT AND MOVING EAST MONDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER IN
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE A TROUGH TRYING TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST WILL
HAVE. CURRENTLY 50-60% OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES. HAVE DAYTIME TEMPS COOLING A FEW
DEGREES GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AT 5-6K FT, SO EXPECTING A RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT. /NISBET
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW OVER CENTRAL
WASHINGTON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AM IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. THEN THE HEATING OF
THE DAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY PM. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
TURNING TO SNOW OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MVFR STRATUS DECK
OVER EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH A SOME RISK FOR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. GEG/SFF/COE HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF MVFR. THE STRATUS DECK WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND TAF SITES CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY FOR CIGS IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD TUESDAY AM NEAR GEG/SFF/COE.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT GEG/SFF/COE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 49 34 51 34 52 30 / 30 10 20 20 60 10
COEUR D'ALENE 48 34 49 33 50 27 / 40 10 40 30 70 10
PULLMAN 46 33 48 31 49 30 / 20 10 30 10 60 20
LEWISTON 53 38 54 37 55 34 / 20 10 20 10 30 10
COLVILLE 50 31 51 31 53 27 / 30 10 40 30 50 10
SANDPOINT 46 34 46 33 47 27 / 40 20 70 60 80 20
KELLOGG 43 36 44 34 44 27 / 50 20 70 30 80 30
MOSES LAKE 58 32 58 34 58 34 / 30 10 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 56 35 56 35 57 35 / 20 0 0 0 10 0
OMAK 56 34 57 33 59 31 / 20 20 10 10 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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